· Analysis updated 21:39 UTC
Casa Pia vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Casa Pia and 2.20 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Famalicao win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Famalicao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.7%
- 0–112.4%
- 0–310.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
Famalicao
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-23T20:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-09-21T19:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-2 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-05T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-07-27T12:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 Famalicao (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-17T17:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-13T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-03-13T20:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Famalicao win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.