Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Casa Pia vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Casa Pia and 2.52 for FC Porto, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Porto win
78.5% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 2.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.6%
- 0–311.4%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–47.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 40.6% | 42.9% | 2.33 | +2.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.04 | 92.0% | 92.8% | 1.08 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 13.00 | 7.1% | 7.2% | 13.89 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.50 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 6.99 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.18 | 78.6% | 78.5% | 1.27 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 4.40 | 21.8% | 21.5% | 4.65 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 86.2% | 85.7% | 1.17 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.57 | 59.4% | 57.1% | 1.75 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-2 (L)
FC Porto
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-02T20:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-4 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-12T19:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-02T20:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-09T20:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-3 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-05-14T19:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-2 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-01-07T20:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-0 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-12-05T20:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-3 FC Porto (Taça da Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 78.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.