Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Casa Pia vs Moreirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.08 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Casa Pia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Moreirense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casa Pia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 29% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Casa Pia and 1.08 for Moreirense, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–112.0%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.73 | 53.6% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.18 | 80.1% | 81.9% | 1.22 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 35.5% | 36.4% | 2.75 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.78 | 33.5% | 34.4% | 2.91 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.6% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.42 | 65.1% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.1% | 70.8% | 1.41 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.45 | 63.8% | 63.5% | 1.57 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.45 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.75 | 19.9% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -1.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 31.0% | 29.1% | 3.44 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.4% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
Moreirense
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.