Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.41 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Rio Ave the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Ave away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Casa Pia win30%

Draw26%

Rio Ave win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–111.1%
1–08.9%
1–28.8%
0–07.9%

Recent form

Casa Pia

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)

Rio Ave

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2026-01-04T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2025-03-29T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2025-01-12T16:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave (Taça de Portugal)
2024-11-02T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-2 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2024-02-11T15:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2023-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2023-04-16T14:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2022-10-30T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-0 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
2022-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 Rio Ave (Segunda Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	16	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	1	11
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	SC Braga	7	3	2	2	0	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.