· Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Casa Pia and 2.40 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
75.7% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–17.5%
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-16T20:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-08T19:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-09T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-10-05T19:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-29T20:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-8 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-08-18T19:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-09T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 3-4 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-12-22T20:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.