Celtic Park · Referee Patrik Kolaric · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Celtic and 0.91 for Ferencvarosi TC, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celtic win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celtic home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferencvarosi TC away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Celtic and 0.91 for Ferencvarosi TC, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 51.3% vs market 37.5%, edge +13.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 37.5% | 51.3% | 1.95 | +13.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.8% | 24.1% | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.0% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.6% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.6% | 20.2% | 4.95 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.5% | 48.7% | 2.05 | -13.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Celtic
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-0 (W)
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Celtic 1-3 Ferencvarosi TC (UEFA Europa League)
- 2021-11-04T20:00:00.000Z · Celtic 3-2 Ferencvarosi TC (UEFA Europa League)
- 2021-10-19T14:30:00.000Z · Celtic 2-0 Ferencvarosi TC (UEFA Europa League)
- 2020-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · Celtic 1-2 Ferencvarosi TC (UEFA Champions League)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celtic win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.