· Analysis updated 11:04 UTC
Cercle Brugge II vs Tienen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Cercle Brugge II and 2.00 for Tienen, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Cercle Brugge II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cercle Brugge II win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cercle Brugge II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tienen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cercle Brugge II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 19% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Cercle Brugge II and 2.00 for Tienen, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Cercle Brugge II
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Thes Sport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tienen · 1-3 (L)
Tienen
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandel United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelbeke · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T14:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge II 1-2 Tienen (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge II 1-1 Tienen (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge II 3-0 Tienen (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-12-01T14:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge II 1-0 Tienen (First Amateur Division)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Onhaye | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Flénu | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cercle Brugge II win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.