Jan Breydel Stadion · Referee M. Ledda · Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.06 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Cercle Brugge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cercle Brugge win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cercle Brugge home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Lommel United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +2.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 40.8% | 42.4% | 2.36 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.55 | 37.0% | 38.0% | 2.63 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 17.1% | 17.9% | 5.59 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 61.3% | 62.0% | 1.61 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 81.4% | 82.1% | 1.22 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 37.9% | 38.0% | 2.63 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 80.7% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 63.0% | 62.0% | 1.61 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.7% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 57.6% | 1.74 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cercle Brugge
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 0-1 (L)
Lommel United
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-1 Lommel United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2017-04-21T18:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-0 Lommel United (Challenger Pro League)
- 2017-03-26T13:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-5 Lommel United (Challenger Pro League)
- 2017-02-03T19:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-0 Lommel United (Challenger Pro League)
- 2016-11-20T15:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-0 Lommel United (Challenger Pro League)
- 2016-10-14T18:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 3-1 Lommel United (Challenger Pro League)
- 2016-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-1 Lommel United (Challenger Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cercle Brugge win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.