· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Cetate Deva vs Unirea Alba Iulia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cetate Deva and 2.18 for Unirea Alba Iulia, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Unirea Alba Iulia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Unirea Alba Iulia win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unirea Alba Iulia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 30% / 21% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Cetate Deva and 2.18 for Unirea Alba Iulia, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 50% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.2%
Recent form
Cetate Deva
- 2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CIL Blaj · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Sântana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Alba Iulia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Pecica · 3-1 (W)
Unirea Alba Iulia
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIL Blaj | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Unirea Sântana | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Timişul Şag | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Cetate Deva | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 |
| 6 | Progresul Pecica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Viitorul Arad | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Poli Timisoara 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Alba Iulia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Nera Bogodinţi | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Unirea Alba Iulia win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.