· Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Cham vs FC Sion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Cham and 1.49 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cham win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Sion away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Cham and 1.49 for FC Sion, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Cham
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brühl · 2-1 (W)
FC Sion
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.