Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Chicago Fire and 1.37 for New York City FC, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Chicago Fire win

46.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chicago Fire win47%

Draw23%

New York City FC win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.5%
2–19.3%
1–07.6%
1–27.2%
2–06.7%

Why the model likes this

Chicago Fire home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New York City FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chicago Fire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.37 for New York City FC, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Chicago Fire

2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-3 (L)

New York City FC

2026-08-13T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.