Chrobry Głogów vs Warta Poznań Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów and 1.37 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Warta Poznań the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chrobry Głogów home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Warta Poznań away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warta Poznań to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Chrobry Głogów and 1.37 for Warta Poznań, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chrobry Głogów win36%

Draw26%

Warta Poznań win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.2%
1–09.0%
1–28.4%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Chrobry Głogów

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Siedlce · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 2-0 (W)

Warta Poznań

2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	3	0	7	-3	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.