Dick's Sporting Goods Park · Referee Filip Dujic · Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.02 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Colorado Rapids the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colorado Rapids win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colorado Rapids home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Jose Earthquakes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colorado Rapids to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.02 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 50.6% vs market 38.0%, edge +12.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +12.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.5% | 47.8% | 2.09 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.1% | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.1% | 3.83 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.9% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.9% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -12.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Colorado Rapids
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Sounders · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 1-0 (W)
San Jose Earthquakes
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colorado Rapids win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.