Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Corinthians the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Corinthians or Draw

67.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Corinthians win40%

Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–011.9%
0–110.5%
0–09.5%
2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

Atletico Paranaense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Corinthians and 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Corinthians

Atletico Paranaense

2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.