Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira · Referee Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.05 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coritiba home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 29% / 32% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Coritiba and 1.05 for Atletico-MG, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Coritiba
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-2 (L)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.