Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira · Referee Anderson Daronco, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Coritiba vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.20 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Coritiba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coritiba home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Coritiba
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-2 (L)
Bahia
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T23:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 3-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-4 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-05-07T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-3 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2020-11-16T21:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2020-08-12T23:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2017-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2017-06-15T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-0 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2014-12-07T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 3-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2014-09-07T21:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-0 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2013-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-2 Bahia (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.