Estádio Couto Pereira · Referee Matheus Delgado Candancan · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Coritiba vs Botafogo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.22 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Coritiba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coritiba home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botafogo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 50.3% vs market 41.1%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.3% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 36.3% | 36.3% | 2.75 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.3% | 36.3% | 2.75 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.4% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.4% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Coritiba
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-2 (L)
Botafogo
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-2 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2023-11-30T00:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2023-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-4 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2022-09-17T22:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-2 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2022-05-29T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2021-08-28T00:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-1 Botafogo (Serie B)
- 2021-06-06T00:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-2 Botafogo (Serie B)
- 2020-12-20T00:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2020-09-02T23:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2017-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-3 Botafogo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.