Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira · Referee J. Vitor Gobi · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.88 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Coritiba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.
Model pick
Coritiba to Win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Why the model likes this
Coritiba home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chapecoense-sc away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.64 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.65 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 5.40 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.06 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 8.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 6.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.10 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.90 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.80 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Coritiba
- 2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-3 (L)
Chapecoense-sc
- 2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2026-02-11T22:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 3-3 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2025-08-09T00:35:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie B)
- 2025-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie B)
- 2024-11-17T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Chapecoense-sc (Serie B)
- 2024-07-27T20:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie B)
- 2017-12-03T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2017-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2016-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2016-06-02T00:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 3-4 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 31 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.