Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira · Referee Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:36 UTC
Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.03 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Coritiba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coritiba home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mirassol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coritiba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Coritiba and 1.03 for Mirassol, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–112.6%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–17.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 57.8% vs market 50.0%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +7.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.2% | 66.0% | 1.52 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.6% | 70.1% | 1.43 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 35.9% | 36.1% | 2.77 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.9% | 29.9% | 3.34 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.2% | 34.0% | 2.94 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.2% | 63.9% | 1.56 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 42.2% | 2.37 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Coritiba
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-2 (L)
Mirassol
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2026-03-18T23:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-0 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2024-11-06T00:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-4 Mirassol (Serie B)
- 2024-07-20T00:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-1 Mirassol (Serie B)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.