Governador Magalhães Pinto · Referee Lucas Casagrande, Brazil · Analysis updated 06:30 UTC
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.51 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cruzeiro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fluminense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.51 for Fluminense, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Cruzeiro
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
Fluminense
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 69 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -31 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.