Governador Magalhães Pinto · Referee Lucas Casagrande, Brazil · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.89 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cruzeiro win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cruzeiro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mirassol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.89 for Mirassol, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.3% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +2.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +2.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 51.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.7% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.71 | 54.6% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 75.6% | 1.32 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 79.8% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 45.5% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -2.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -2.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.40 | 27.7% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cruzeiro
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
Mirassol
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2026-02-11T22:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 2-2 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2025-08-18T23:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-1 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2025-03-29T21:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 2-1 Mirassol (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cruzeiro win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.