Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.02 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Cruzeiro or Draw

70.2% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cruzeiro win42%

Draw28%

Mirassol win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.8%
0–110.3%
0–010.0%
2–18.4%

Why the model likes this

Mirassol away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.02 for Mirassol, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Cruzeiro

Mirassol

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs LDU de Quito · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	22	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	5	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.