Estádio Mineirão · Referee Wilton Sampaio · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.89 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cruzeiro win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cruzeiro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sao Paulo away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 54.8% vs market 48.0%, edge +6.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.0% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +6.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.4% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.7% | 23.0% | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 49.3% | 49.6% | 2.02 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 50.5% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.4% | 77.1% | 1.30 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -6.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cruzeiro
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
Sao Paulo
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T21:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-4 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-04-13T20:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-01-16T00:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-15T21:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2024-06-02T21:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 0-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2023-11-02T23:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2023-06-25T00:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2019-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2019-06-02T19:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 53 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 51 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cruzeiro win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.