Estadio Tierra de Campeones · Analysis updated 12:02 UTC
Deportes Iquique vs San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 0.80 for San Luis, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Deportes Iquique the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportes Iquique win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportes Iquique home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Luis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Deportes Iquique
- 2026-10-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 1-4 (L)
San Luis
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Recoleta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union San Felipe · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 0-1 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2026-04-19T22:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-2 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2023-07-14T23:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-0 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2023-02-26T15:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 3-2 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2022-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 0-0 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2022-05-07T00:30:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-1 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2021-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 1-1 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2021-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 0-0 San Luis (Primera B)
- 2018-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 2-2 San Luis (Primera División)
- 2018-03-18T21:00:00.000Z · Deportes Iquique 0-0 San Luis (Primera División)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Antofagasta | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 48 |
| 5 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 6 | San Marcos de Arica | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -20 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportes Iquique win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.