Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni · Referee M. Zini · Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Desenzano Calvina vs Lecco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Desenzano Calvina and 0.96 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Desenzano Calvina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Desenzano Calvina home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lecco away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Desenzano Calvina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Desenzano Calvina and 0.96 for Lecco, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 59.0% vs market 50.7%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 50.7% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.1% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 31.4% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.2% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.3% | 30.3% | 3.30 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.6% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.2% | 61.8% | 1.62 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.3% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Desenzano Calvina
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 1-3 (L)
Lecco
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Desenzano Calvina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · Desenzano Calvina 1-3 Lecco (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Desenzano Calvina 0-0 Lecco (Coppa Italia Serie C)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.