· Analysis updated 05:16 UTC
Desportivo Huíla vs Wiliete Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Desportivo Huíla and 1.50 for Wiliete, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Wiliete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wiliete win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Desportivo Huíla home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiliete away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiliete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 26% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Desportivo Huíla and 1.50 for Wiliete, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Desportivo Huíla
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs São Salvador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Académica do Lobito · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo da Caála · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Wiliete · 0-1 (L)
Wiliete
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wiliete win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.