Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy · Referee I. Shumilov · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
Dinamo Brest vs ML Vitebsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Dinamo Brest and 1.24 for ML Vitebsk, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives ML Vitebsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ML Vitebsk win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Brest home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ML Vitebsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Dinamo Brest and 1.24 for ML Vitebsk, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 59.0% vs market 48.5%, edge +10.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +10.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.8% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 25.2% | 25.7% | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.8% | 70.8% | 1.41 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.4% | 29.2% | 3.42 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 45.3% | 45.1% | 2.22 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -10.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dinamo Brest
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 1-1 (D)
ML Vitebsk
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Minsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 29 | 47 |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 46 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | Neman | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 39 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -18 | 23 |
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -17 | 21 |
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -31 | 17 |
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 24 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ML Vitebsk win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.