Stadion Maksimir · Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Thun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.00 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Zagreb home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Thun away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Zagreb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.00 for FC Thun, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-0 (D)
FC Thun
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.