DVTK Stadion · Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Diosgyori VTK vs Ajka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Diosgyori VTK and 0.99 for Ajka, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Diosgyori VTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Diosgyori VTK win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diosgyori VTK home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 46.6% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.1% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.95 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.75 | 51.4% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 48.6% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.7% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 77.7% | 76.7% | 1.30 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.3% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Diosgyori VTK
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyirmot SE · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fehérvár FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs BVSC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tiszakecske FC · 1-4 (L)
Ajka
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszakecske FC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Csakvar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs BVSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Soroksar · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · Diosgyori VTK 1-1 Ajka (NB II)
- 2023-02-12T14:00:00.000Z · Diosgyori VTK 1-0 Ajka (NB II)
- 2022-08-17T17:00:00.000Z · Diosgyori VTK 3-1 Ajka (NB II)
- 2022-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · Diosgyori VTK 0-0 Ajka (NB II)
- 2021-11-28T16:00:00.000Z · Diosgyori VTK 2-0 Ajka (NB II)
NB II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Gyirmot SE | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Ajka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Karcag SE | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | BVSC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Csakvar | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Kozarmisleny FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Diosgyori VTK win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.