Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion · Referee Konrad Oldhafer, Germany · Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.32 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Dynamo Dresden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dynamo Dresden win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dynamo Dresden home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Darmstadt 98 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dynamo Dresden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.32 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.53 (model 64.7% vs market 61.6%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.53 | 61.6% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +3.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.40 | 38.1% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +2.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 41.0% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 44.7% | 45.9% | 2.18 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 29.3% | 30.2% | 3.31 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 69.6% | 69.8% | 1.43 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.9% | 76.1% | 1.31 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 54.5% | 54.1% | 1.85 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 59.0% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 26.0% | 23.9% | 4.18 | -2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.48 | 61.9% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -2.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.45 | 38.4% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dynamo Dresden
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-5 (L)
SV Darmstadt 98
- 2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo Dresden win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.