· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Eibar vs Arenas Getxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Eibar and 0.87 for Arenas Getxo, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Eibar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eibar win
70.6% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eibar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arenas Getxo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eibar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Eibar and 0.87 for Arenas Getxo, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–08.7%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Eibar
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eldense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta de Vigo II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 3-0 (W)
Arenas Getxo
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cultural Leonesa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eibar win, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.