· Analysis updated 11:28 UTC
Elversberg U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Elversberg U19 and 2.33 for Greuther Fürth U19, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Greuther Fürth U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Greuther Fürth U19 win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elversberg U19 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Greuther Fürth U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greuther Fürth U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 28% / 20% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Elversberg U19 and 2.33 for Greuther Fürth U19, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Elversberg U19
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 · 0-2 (L)
Greuther Fürth U19
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Berliner U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Schott Mainz U19 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · Elversberg U19 0-2 Greuther Fürth U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-14T10:00:00.000Z · Elversberg U19 1-1 Greuther Fürth U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-26T09:00:00.000Z · Elversberg U19 1-2 Greuther Fürth U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-22T10:00:00.000Z · Elversberg U19 1-2 Greuther Fürth U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Greuther Fürth U19 win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.