Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.30 for FC Carl Zeiss Jena, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives FC Carl Zeiss Jena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erzgebirge Aue home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Carl Zeiss Jena away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Carl Zeiss Jena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 27% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.30 for FC Carl Zeiss Jena, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Erzgebirge Aue win35%

Draw27%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–110.6%
1–09.9%
1–28.3%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Erzgebirge Aue

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	14	8	5	1	11	29
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	14	4	6	4	0	18
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BSG Chemie Leipzig	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
15	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
16	Hertha BSC II	14	2	4	8	-15	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.