Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Referee Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal · Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Estoril vs Arouca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Estoril and 1.40 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arouca win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estoril home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arouca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.1%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.6%
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-2 (L)
Arouca
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 0-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-04-06T17:45:00.000Z · Estoril 2-3 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-07T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 4-3 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-16T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-10-26T14:30:00.000Z · Estoril 4-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-20T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-08-13T19:30:00.000Z · Estoril 3-4 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-05-15T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 2-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-01-07T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-01-27T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 1-2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arouca win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.