Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Estoril vs Estrela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Estoril and 1.85 for Estrela, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Estrela win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estoril home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-2 (L)
Estrela
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-19T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 5-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-11T17:45:00.000Z · Estoril 1-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 4-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-05T20:30:00.000Z · Estoril 4-2 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-07-24T00:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-2 Estrela (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-08-25T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 1-2 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estrela win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.