Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Analysis updated 19:25 UTC
Estoril vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Estoril and 1.18 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Estoril win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estoril home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
Nacional
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-2 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-26T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-15T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-2 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-1 Nacional (Taça da Liga)
- 2019-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-2 Nacional (Segunda Liga)
- 2017-04-09T15:00:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2016-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estoril win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.