Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Analysis updated 17:36 UTC
Estoril vs SC Braga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Estoril and 1.25 for SC Braga, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SC Braga win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estoril home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Braga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.8%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–010.0%
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-0 (D)
SC Braga
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-1 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-19T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 1-0 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-19T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 0-2 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-06T20:15:00.000Z · Estoril 2-2 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-13T19:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-27T19:45:00.000Z · Estoril 1-1 SC Braga (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-12-03T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-3 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-08T19:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-4 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-10-22T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 0-2 SC Braga (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Braga win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.