· Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Estrela vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Estrela and 1.63 for Alverca, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alverca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Estrela and 1.63 for Alverca, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Estrela
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
Alverca
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · Estrela 2-2 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-01-31T20:30:00.000Z · Estrela 1-1 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-25T19:15:00.000Z · Estrela 2-2 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.