· Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Estrela vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estrela and 2.50 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–36.9%
Recent form
Estrela
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 2-2 (D)
Benfica
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-25T18:00:00.000Z · Estrela 0-4 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-16T19:30:00.000Z · Estrela 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-02T20:30:00.000Z · Estrela 2-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-11-23T20:45:00.000Z · Estrela 0-7 Benfica (Taça de Portugal)
- 2024-08-24T19:30:00.000Z · Estrela 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-29T18:45:00.000Z · Estrela 1-4 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-08-19T19:30:00.000Z · Estrela 0-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-20T19:00:00.000Z · Estrela 2-3 Benfica (Taça da Liga)
- 2021-01-12T21:15:00.000Z · Estrela 0-4 Benfica (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.