· Analysis updated 15:05 UTC
Estrela vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Estrela and 2.28 for FC Porto, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Porto win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 14% / 18% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Estrela and 2.28 for FC Porto, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–37.9%
Recent form
Estrela
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
FC Porto
- 2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.