Antonio Candini · Referee F. Viola · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.12 for Racing Club, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Racing Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Club win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 22% / 32% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.12 for Racing Club, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.5%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–210.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.65 (model 66.8% vs market 56.6%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.65 | 56.6% | 66.8% | 1.50 | +10.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.1% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 45.7% | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.5% | 31.7% | 3.15 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.7% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.4% | 33.2% | 3.01 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 0-2 (L)
Racing Club
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Club win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.