Estádio Municipal de Famalicão · Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal · Analysis updated 22:44 UTC
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.91 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Famalicao home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GIL Vicente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Famalicao
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
GIL Vicente
- 2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-01T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-5 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-17T20:15:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-14T19:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-29T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-11-04T18:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 3-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-02-12T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-22T19:15:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-04-15T17:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.