Famalicao vs Moreirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.25 for Moreirense, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Famalicao win

54.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Famalicao home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Moreirense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Famalicao win55%

Draw22%

Moreirense win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–19.7%
1–07.8%
2–07.8%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Famalicao

2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)

Moreirense

2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AVS · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-10T19:45:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-1 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2025-11-29T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-2 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2025-07-23T12:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-0 Moreirense (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-23T20:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-0 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2024-09-21T19:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2024-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · Famalicao 3-2 Moreirense (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-01-28T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-1 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2023-08-21T19:15:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2022-02-13T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 5-0 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)
2021-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-2 Moreirense (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	9	5	3	1	10	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	2	17
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-5	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	3	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
13	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	-8	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	-13	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Famalicao win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.