Estadio Municipal de Famalicao · Analysis updated 21:29 UTC
Famalicao vs SC Braga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.03 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Famalicao home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Braga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Braga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 34% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Famalicao and 1.03 for SC Braga, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Famalicao
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
SC Braga
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.