Famalicao vs Vitória SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.85 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Famalicao home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitória SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Famalicao win45%

Draw30%

Vitória SC win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–015.4%
1–113.1%
0–012.6%
0–110.7%
2–09.4%

Recent form

Famalicao

2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)

Vitória SC

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativa de Lamelas · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2025-10-26T15:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2025-02-08T20:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2024-09-01T19:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-2 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2024-03-09T20:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 0-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2023-10-08T14:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-3 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2023-04-14T19:15:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2022-10-31T20:15:00.000Z · Famalicao 2-3 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2022-03-06T20:30:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-2 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
2021-10-01T20:15:00.000Z · Famalicao 1-2 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.