TQL Stadium · Referee T. Ford · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
FC Cincinnati vs DC United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.17 for DC United, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives FC Cincinnati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Cincinnati win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cincinnati home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DC United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cincinnati to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.17 for DC United, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 39.7% vs market 35.5%, edge +4.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 39.7% | 2.52 | +4.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 40.8% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 58.2% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.8% | 20.9% | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.1% | 20.8% | 4.81 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.6% | 79.2% | 1.26 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.6% | 79.1% | 1.26 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 60.3% | 1.66 | -4.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Cincinnati
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-4 (L)
DC United
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Cincinnati win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.