· Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
FC Porto vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.28 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Porto win
80.7% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–020.5%
- 1–019.5%
- 3–014.4%
- 0–09.3%
- 4–07.5%
Recent form
FC Porto
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-02T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 4-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-12T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-02T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-09T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-05-14T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-01-07T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-12-05T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-0 Casa Pia (Taça da Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 80.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.