· Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
FC Porto vs Estoril Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.45 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Porto win
75.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estoril away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–017.2%
- 1–016.8%
- 3–011.8%
- 0–08.2%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
FC Porto
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-2 (L)
Estoril
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-30T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-30T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-11-03T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 4-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-30T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-09T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 4-0 Estoril (Taça de Portugal)
- 2023-12-06T18:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-3 Estoril (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-11-03T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-03-10T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-2 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.