FC Porto vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Porto and 1.55 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Porto home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Porto win42%

Draw23%

Sporting CP win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–18.7%
1–27.8%
2–26.8%
1–06.5%

Recent form

FC Porto

2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)

Sporting CP

2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-22T19:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-0 Sporting CP (Taça de Portugal)
2026-03-03T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-1 Sporting CP (Taça de Portugal)
2026-02-09T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-02-07T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-01-07T19:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-1 Sporting CP (Taça da Liga)
2024-08-31T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2024-08-03T19:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 4-3 Sporting CP (Super Cup)
2024-05-26T16:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Sporting CP (Taça de Portugal)
2024-04-28T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	16	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	1	11
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	SC Braga	7	3	2	2	0	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.