· Analysis updated 15:44 UTC
FC Porto vs Vitória SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.63 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Porto win
71.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vitória SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.5%
- 1–013.9%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
FC Porto
- 2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
Vitória SC
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativa de Lamelas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-04T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-3 Vitória SC (Taça da Liga)
- 2025-08-11T19:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-24T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-17T19:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-1 Vitória SC (Taça de Portugal)
- 2024-04-07T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-2 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-03T19:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Vitória SC (Taça de Portugal)
- 2023-11-11T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-05-27T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.