· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Ferizaj vs Dukagjini Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ferizaj and 1.37 for Dukagjini, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Ferizaj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferizaj home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dukagjini away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Ferizaj
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Liria Prizren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Llapi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 2-3 (L)
Dukagjini
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Drita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballkani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-21T18:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 1-2 Dukagjini (Cup)
- 2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 1-2 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2026-02-28T12:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 1-1 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2025-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 0-1 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 0-2 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 1-3 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2025-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 2-1 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2024-12-13T12:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 0-1 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2024-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 2-1 Dukagjini (Superliga)
- 2023-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · Ferizaj 2-1 Dukagjini (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.